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Russia-Ukraine conflict ‘increasing uncertainty’ of agri supply & demand globall

Russia’s recent military action in Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally, a report titled World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates by the US Department of Agriculture has said.

The world exports of wheat are lowered by 3.6 million tons to 203.1 million, as the decline in exports from Ukraine and Russia are only partly offset by increases for Australia and India, the report said.  However, India’s robust export pace is expected to continue because of its ample stocks and rising global prices, the report added.

While Ukraine’s wheat exports were expected to decline by 4.0 million tons to 20.0 million, the report estimated the Russian wheat export could fall 3 million tons to 32 million owing to the sanctions imposed on Russia and the ongoing conflict.

 “Partly offsetting these reductions are increases for 2021/22 Australian and Indian exports, up 2.0 and 1.5 million tons respectively to 27.5 and 8.5 million. Increased production and competitive prices are expected to boost exports in Australia to a record level,” the report said.

Imports are lowered for many countries including Turkey, Egypt, the EU, Afghanistan, Algeria, Kenya, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Yemen based on reduced Black Sea wheat export availability and higher world prices, the report further said.

On global rice supply, the report estimated larger supplies and higher consumption owning to higher production for India. India is projected to produce a record at a record 129 million tons, higher by 4 million.

 “Global 2021-22 consumption is increased 0.7 million tons to a record 511.1 million. World trade is 0.5 million tons higher at 51.3 million on greater exports by India and Thailand. India’s 2021-22 exports are forecast at 20.5 million tons, surpassing last year’s record 20.2 million,” the report added.

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